Fang Yi, Chief Strategy Officer of Guotai Junan: The conditions of "transformation cattle" in China stock market are forming four themes, focusing on mergers and acquisitions and self-control. Fang Yi, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Strategy, said at the main forum of Guotai Junan 2025 investment strategy that the bottom of China stock market has appeared, and the conditions of "transformation cattle" are forming; The key driving force of the market comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference, and the economic expectation is expected to be revised up in 2025H2; The mid-line of the stock market is expected to get out of the N-rhythm. Theme recommendation: merger and reorganization/self-control/humanoid robot/self-consumption. 1) M&A and reorganization: the regulatory tolerance of cross-border M&A and acquisition of unprofitable assets has been improved, and we are optimistic about the traditional industry leaders who are the main enterprises of science and technology chain and benefit from the optimization of industry structure; 2) Self-control: global science and technology supply chain reconstruction, optimistic about the improvement of localization rate of advanced semiconductors/basic software; 3) Humanoid robot: mass production and application scenario expansion are accelerated, and key components such as dexterous hands/actuators are optimistic; 4) Self-satisfaction consumption: demographic changes have given birth to new consumption patterns, and we are optimistic about the high growth of secondary consumption/pet consumption. Market information: FTSE Film will increase the output of CMP slurry in Korea by 30%.
Fitch: In 2025, the prospects of all segments of the US technology market are neutral. It is expected that the investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and the PC update cycle will promote the single-digit growth in the semiconductor segment.Goldman Sachs: We estimate that if the price of Brent crude oil falls to the range of more than $50/barrel by the end of 2025, the growth rate of shale oil supply in the United States will fall below 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, which in turn will push the price of Brent crude oil up by $8 per barrel in 2025.Goldman Sachs: Two situations support the view that the reserve price of Brent crude oil is $70. Goldman Sachs: We find that when the price of Brent crude oil falls to the range of $60/barrel, the supply response measures of the United States will increase, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tends to extend the production reduction around the current price level, which supports our view that the reserve price of Brent crude oil is $70/barrel.
International precious metal futures closed down sharply, COMEX gold futures fell by 1.87%, COMEX gold futures fell by 1.87% to $2,705.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell by 4.25% to $31.565 per ounce.The production and transportation capacity is continuously released. The coal supply is guaranteed this winter and next spring. In winter, the heating energy can be greatly improved. As a stabilizer of China's energy supply, coal production, storage and transportation have attracted much attention. At the 2025 National Coal Fair held recently, more than 30 enterprises signed medium-and long-term contracts for coal. Most of the medium-and long-term contracts signed this time are independently connected by the supply and demand sides, and the transaction has a high degree of marketization, which is conducive to the performance of enterprises according to the actual contract volume, and has laid a "reassuring" for coal supply this winter and next spring. The reporter learned from the China Coal Industry Association that in the first 10 months of this year, the national raw coal output above designated size was 3.89 billion tons, up 1.2% year-on-year, and the output reached the highest level in the same period in history. In terms of imports, in the first three quarters, China imported 389 million tons of coal, up 11.9% year-on-year. At the same time, coal storage is also full of confidence. According to the data, at present, the coal storage capacity of power plants nationwide is more than 200 million tons, and the average available days are more than 30 days. (Economic Daily)Brazilian Senate President Pacheco: I think it is possible for the House of Representatives and the Senate to approve the financial plan this year.